CARBON SEQUESTRATION AND EMISSIONS IN BRAZILIAN PLANTED FORESTS: INTEGRATING ECOPHYSIOLOGICAL AND LIFE CYCLE MODELING
Modelagem de carbono florestal; plantio clonal; mitigação das mudanças climáticas; produtos de floresta plantada; papel e celulose.
Planted forests have been recognized as strategic components in climate change mitigation, both through atmospheric carbon sequestration during tree growth and carbon storage in harvested wood products. Brazil, with approximately 10 million hectares of planted forests, holds some of the highest productivity rates in the world, contributing significantly to the national bioeconomy and to global climate goals. However, the productivity and carbon balance of these systems are strongly influenced by genetic and environmental factors. Important knowledge gaps remain regarding how these plantations respond to extreme climate conditions and how carbon is distributed across the wood product supply chain. This thesis aimed to quantify the carbon balance in Eucalyptus and Pinus plantations in Brazil and to evaluate the climate contribution of their derived products, with a focus on pulp and paper. To achieve this, three integrated studies were conducted. The first assessed carbon fluxes and partitioning in commercial plantations across a broad climatic gradient. The second investigated physiological drought tolerance strategies by analyzing carbon partitioning in Eucalyptus clones with contrasting genetic traits. The third involved the adaptation and parameterization of a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) model — ForestWise — to estimate carbon stocks and emissions associated with paper products derived from Brazilian Eucalyptus plantations. Results showed that gross primary production (GPP) varied more than fivefold across the study sites, with maximum temperature being the main limiting factor for productivity. Under thermal stress, plantations exhibited higher carbon allocation to root systems at the expense of aboveground biomass, affecting carbon sequestration potential. Drought-tolerant (DT) Eucalyptus clones demonstrated lower sensitivity to climate variability compared to fast-growing (FG) clones, allocating more carbon belowground as an acclimation strategy to cope with water and heat stress. In the third study, the ForestWise model was applied to simulate the life cycle of paper products over a 120-year period. It was found that these products store approximately 12.7 MtC upon market entry and 4.2 MtC after 120 years, with landfills serving as the primary long-term carbon pool. The industrial phase accounted for over 90% of total life cycle emissions, emphasizing the need for improvements in energy efficiency and production processes. In conclusion, Eucalyptus and Pinus plantations in Brazil hold substantial carbon sequestration potential, though this is sensitive to climate conditions and genetic material. The inclusion of pulp and paper products in carbon accounting, through the LCA approach, demonstrated that harvested wood products represent an important extension of the forest carbon sink, particularly when recycled or disposed of in landfills. These findings reinforce the role of planted forests as nature-based solutions and their relevance in national and corporate climate mitigation strategies.